The outcome of this election may prove to be a total surprise, but I doubt it. I say that while not allowing for voter fraud or statistical bias. Regarding bias, the photo for this piece has Truman gloating over the Chicago Daily Tribune's failed scoop. Its editors believed the data. The Tribune's expectations in the 1948 election were based on faulty Gallup polls. The problem was that Gallup had surveyed a specific sector of citizens—such as those who read Literary Digest, an upscale magazine of the era—rather than a cross section, and now in 2012 Gallup's lop-sided current data again shows it out of step with other polls.